Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 0.092097 0.107097 0.124307 0.145634 0.171515 0.202116 0.241343
2025-10-05 0.071062 0.089123 0.111851 0.142963 0.185089 0.241093 0.322811
2025-10-12 0.058243 0.077974 0.104902 0.145246 0.205772 0.295958 0.446055
2025-10-19 0.048076 0.068171 0.097657 0.145653 0.225021 0.357317 0.609367
2025-10-26 0.040438 0.060406 0.091722 0.146846 0.247051 0.434043 0.844838
2025-11-02 0.033410 0.052173 0.083339 0.142132 0.258608 0.500336 1.111387
2025-11-09 0.027409 0.044449 0.074189 0.133807 0.261447 0.553875 1.401241
2025-11-16 0.023717 0.039957 0.069764 0.133422 0.281469 0.659682 1.942801
2025-11-23 0.020702 0.036113 0.065744 0.132909 0.302093 0.783926 2.713057
2025-11-30 0.018473 0.033326 0.063211 0.135087 0.331502 0.958904 3.980985
2025-12-07 0.016531 0.030751 0.060580 0.136415 0.360502 1.162795 5.860128
2025-12-14 0.014473 0.027589 0.056042 0.131738 0.370527 1.314024 7.919757
2025-12-21 0.011950 0.023144 0.047964 0.116004 0.340269 1.288607 8.843848
2025-12-28 0.010849 0.021579 0.046269 0.117525 0.371118 1.582816 13.933427
2026-01-04 0.010061 0.020573 0.045724 0.122401 0.419171 2.048695 24.583724
2026-01-11 0.009270 0.019433 0.044612 0.125335 0.463378 2.590341 43.455617
2026-01-18 0.008584 0.018423 0.043637 0.128539 0.513251 3.303667 81.791401
2026-01-25 0.007785 0.017016 0.041300 0.126297 0.536717 3.890605 138.520850
2026-02-01 0.006973 0.015458 0.038240 0.120450 0.538164 4.306181 213.534535
2026-02-08 0.006464 0.014595 0.037017 0.121255 0.579666 5.325913 443.010778
2026-02-15 0.006002 0.013788 0.035802 0.121742 0.621643 6.572904 1001.718186
2026-02-22 0.005647 0.013208 0.035165 0.124499 0.683661 8.500009 2978.171300
2026-03-01 0.005305 0.012616 0.034374 0.126371 0.743851 10.877698 10790.235669